From my own short time learning about charting anything from currencies to crypto I have noticed that things tend to reoccur at certain intervals. Sometimes at a monthly, yearly or any other time frame of importance. I believe that this is something that happens in everything in life. In other words cycles that tend to repeat at certain interval lengths. I bring this up because last year in July and August of 2022 the Recur Discord Hello Kitty sub channel was extremely active with announcements and chatter. In fact ever since the first mentioning of the HK NFT project being launched, the vast majority of announcements happened between July to September of 2022.

So what does this mean? Nothing really. We have no confirmation on when the next stage, the snapshot wrapping, will actually take place. However considering that many WEB 3 companies are really slow to communicate with their active community members and also because the brands they work with are possibly getting cold feet while they figure out whether NFT’s are a fad (They’re not) or if they should be pursued further. Brands like Sanrio don’t want to be associated with something that is primarily considered a scam or fishy in nature. Time will show that NFT’s, legitimate NFT projects, are in fact essential to a brands toolkit for spreading brand awareness.

Anyways, the whole point of this post is because the one year anniversary of when things started to pick up steam is coming up in July. As I mentioned above there has yet to be an announcement on when the HK wrapping occurs but if I had to guess I would say that July/August will be the months that the HK collection project manager, Recur, starts to make announcements. Of course given the regulatory environment and the overall feelings of crypto being a scam filled shit show (which it is) makes brands less than eager to push forward with vigor at a time of unsavory sentiment towards the blockchain space.

Usually announcements are made one month in advance of the actual event so if we have July/August announcment, I expect an August/September launch for the wrapping. If September announced then an October launch etc. I have no problem holding on to the NFT’s for years however I am still eager to sell off snapshots for a few reasons.

The crypto sell off is causing the shit tokens to reevaluate to their true valuations or completely get obliterated. If its not the markets that destroy them its regulatory and or security problems that are affecting them. I’ll even say the unholy and sacrosanct Bitcoin and Ethereum are going to face extremely difficult times ahead. In my opinion they are going to sink back to levels not seen many years. Once those two start to sink there will be massive panic in the crypto markets. What we are experiencing now is just the beginning of the end of crypto blockchains that are inferior or out right cons. Now Ethereum and Bitcoin have served their purpose however Ethereum has yet to fix their gas fees. There is this unnatural belief that because all the TVL is so massive on Ethereum that somehow it is immune from fleeing capital and from competition. If chains like Polkadot are showing is that being built correct from the get go and being regulatory compliant is essential. Now at the moment Ethereum is a compliant token however in terms of how it was built, it was never made to handle so many transactions and those layer two solutions compete with its layer 1 baselayer so right there you can already see the beginning of their problems. In any other industry Ethereum would be considered an expensive cost inefficient product that has loads of scams and rug pulls. The developers are the best in the entire crypto blockchain eco system there is no doubt about that but sooner or later they’re going to build shit that people actually want to use and they don’t want to pay 10 dollars complete a 50 dollar transaction.

Bitcoin had over a decade to evolve to have NFT’s and dapps and couldn’t do it. Ordinals are too little too late and even that congests the network to the same effect fee wise like Ethereum. Bitcoins original vision is what set everything off and for that everyone, including myself, is grateful to it for paving the way to decentralization. However Bitcoin will be put out to pasture and you don’t have to believe me you’ll see that the funny money that supported Bitcoin has been leaving for months already. Higher interest rates have caused a cut off of the funny money. Sure there is a lot of money on the sidelines but that money is going to really question themselves about whether Bitcoin, despite its representation of decentralization, can actually do anything more than be a trading vehicle. The same smart money will look at Ethereum and say “Yeah well Ethereum is Bitcoin 2.0 with much more functionality but those gas fees….yikes!”

So how does all this tie in to the snapshots for HK? Money. The snapshots are a great way to raise some cash while collectors start wrapping their snapshots. The snapshot supply is only about 4300 snapshots. If the stamp burning event was anything to go by the amount of snapshots, I believe, that will be wrapped permanently is going to be about 50% within the first month of the wrapping event taking place. This means massive supply reduction and availability. Remember, snapshots are a permanent part of the dynamic wrapping. Once you wrap you can’t go back. Once people start to notice that they can upgrade the rarity level of their low level rarity PFP from the main collection with a decent snapshot they might be inclined to start buying up snaps that, when wrapped, give favorable increase in rarity levels for the original PFP. Lots of options will be available and many factors will contribute towards modifying original pfps. If Recur is using actual dynamic NFT tech then yes the original pfps rarities will change. This explains why they removed the rarity tables after the stamp burning event as this table will be irrelavant once the wrapping begins.

So I want to raise capital from selling of some snaps so that I can by the bottom of the crypto blockchain market that is potentially coming end of this year/ early 2024. I am certain that the market will shave off another 500 billion dollars or roughly 50% of total crypto blockchain marketcap as measured today. I really think a Bitcoin and Ethereum reevaluation is in the cards. There are many non Ethereum/Bitcoin projects that I am keenly looking at but I can’t buy until the market truly bottoms. Some cryptos bottom sooner than others but overall the market is still finding a final floor.

Of course ideally I’d love to hold on to the snapshots for a year, sell at a great price per snapshot and then with that capital be able to buy for HK pfps as well as undervalued crypto. However in reality there’s no guarantee I can sell at optimal price ranges and just in time to capture and invest in the bottom of crypto. Since I believe a bottom is about 6 months away within crypto I still have time for the HK wrapping to occur. Hopefully within those 6 months there’s a listing on Kraken or the Amazon NFT marketplaces? That would be dope but that shouldn’t be expected. I think eventually it will happen but we shouldn’t expect it in 2023.

Overall I’d like to raise at least $10,000 dollars eventually as the wrapping even progresses. The number may sound like a lot given the snail pace at which HK NFTs are selling in the current market however I have noticed that when special events like stamp burnings cause a nice influx of capital into the HK market. I believe the stamp burning event brought in over 100k USD of capital. Lots of people were buying and selling stamps. Recently a couple thousand dollars per month of snapshots have been bought and sold since the website migration. I think 10k USD is a very reasonable amount to be raised from the wrapping event.

What I need is good timing. I would like the wrapping event to begin no later than September of 2023 that way I have a few months for the snapshot supply to reduce, for prices to rise and for other catalyst events to take place that will bring in new people and liquidity into the market. The more people know the more money comes into the ecosystem. The more time I have the more I can sell my snapshots for at a reasonable price and then move that capital to the sidelines while I wait for the crypto market to drain to the dregs.

Again maybe Sanrio decides to take the next step and allow Recur to list on more marketplaces, to actually advertise the collection and perhaps even start to incorporate digital NFT drops into their physical merch as I have mentioned in previous posts. However this is all too much too fast imo given the pace at which most WEB 3 NFT projects are moving. It’s a touch and go situation right now and I think the Japanese are taking a conservative approach to expanding into NFTs in 2023. 2024 is a different story in my opinion but that’s far into the future. For now I need luck and timing on my side to be able to raise the minimum capital needed for the next crypto bullrun.

10k doesn’t seem like a lot to raise but once the next bull run comes 10x to 50x is going to be the norm in legit projects. Move and trade that money around properly, invest it and stake it properly, and you can retire from have a job and focus full time living off your investments. For me it would allow me to move back to Eastern Europe to my wife’s country of Georgia to raise a kid or two, be closer to her side of the family (Her mom recently died) and have a low cost of living so our money can go farther. Of course given the geopolitical situation over there in that part of the world that may not be feasible. The next best thing is Vegas lol.

So in conclusion I expect announcement for wrapping Between July-September and a wrapping event at the very latest in October. Oh and I forgot to mention the next challenge that brings in new stamps from new cities MIGHT also occur this year too. So I have to make sure to accumulate enough PFPs so I own at least 1% of the HK collection. That’s a 100 PFPs for a 100 stamps (I made the mistake in previous posts that 1 pfp gives 3 stamps that was an error. It is one stamper per pfp staked). I’m at 73 pfps at the moment so I’m almost there. Once I have raised a good amount of capital from the snapshots at set it aside for crypto my next objective is to buy pfps with the remaining snaps shots I have left. I will take my time as the supply of HK pfps for sale is massive vs the demand. I don’t want to plow thousands into buying up the floor,only for it to be elevated and then drop down to previous levels where I could have bought for cheaper. My goal is to buy slowly but not over $45-$50 dollars so that market can slowly sink back down again and then I can buy up again as the snaps I hold sell.

If you recall my goal is to ow 5% of the HK NFT supply eventually. That’s 500 NFTs. Given the market conditions if I have enough money and buy slowly over time, this can be done relatively inexpensively. Even if I don’t reach that goal I will still have at least 1% of the supply so that’s a win. Also while I sell off my snapshots I want to be able to purchase stamps cheaply for the next challenge. I want to better corner the stamp market and therefore own a large percentage of the snapshot market for the 2nd challenge so that supply is limited and I am able to sell snaps for higher price. You have to think ahead in this game while the opportunity presents itself because once NFT’s take off mainstream the real whales will come in and they will totally dominate the floors and quantity of NFTS. Its best to buy when everyone thinks the sky is falling and sell when everyone comes back into the space with fists full of cash.

Anyways if you haven’t noticed by now I don’t write for any particular audience. These are just my thoughts and this is more like a journal. Helps me unwind and relax. There’s no one I can talk to about these things really except for a few people on Discord in private messages but most don’t have the patience for foresight to take what I think into consideration. The next best thing is writing this blog. Thanks for reading if you did and God help you if you read this far.