I love to study price action. I don’t know what it is about looking at data and converting it into a chart or reading price action numbers directly but you can glean a lot about behavior from observing it. In fact price action IS all 100% pure behavior. Its action in motion. It is the amalgamation of all decisions made manifest directly in front of you set off by the decision of anyone person or bot to buy or sell anything. No matter what people say they plan to do or what the news tells you or how you think or believe people will react the only sure measure is what actually is reflected in price action. Of course this assumes fair and open liquid markets.

The past few days we saw prices go as low as 15 dollars for snapshots as people overreacted to the news of Recur Discord mods being fired with the exception of one or 2 holdouts left over. Also the fact that they closed down the chats while the leftover mods go on a two week holiday didn’t really help give people hope and thus they reacted with selling off their snaps at their their break even minting price. For those that got their stamps at 2 or 3 dollars each and minted snaps at 9 to 10 dollars and then sold at 15 to 20 dollars then congrats you made a profit. For most people though they completely overpaid for their stamps relative to current market condition and prices. Heck I overpaid for a lot of stuff too and there’s a lesson for me to learn more patience there too. I to am prone to buying high but I also am prone to buying low as well so it balances out. I suppose with practice to get better at trading or at least I’d like to think so.

Like I said people overreacted and severely sold off their very nice snapshots for ridiculous prices. All the people that were on the fence anyways just had their timeline forwarded ahead when the mods were fired and Recur closed the chats. These people were going to sell anyways. They were done and to be honest by the way they behaved in the Discord group the snaps were a mental burden on them as well. If these people who hold little to no Recur based NFTs are still in the general chat if it opens up again then I really wonder what exactly drives them? It’s not to warn others as that is clearly an excuse to just remain around your fellow troll friends and talk smack all day.

Anyways back to price action. When looking at price action through numbers only, in this case the literal price of the items we can observe some interesting behavior. Since I bought everything under 20 dollars I’ve let the market know that there are buyers there. The people who sold under 20 dollars did not expect people to buy and now they are cautious about letting go of anymore snapshots for too cheap. For those that do decide to list below 20 those are the desperate and the ones that need quick money. Those are the ones that will list at 20 then 19, then 18 then finally after a week dump at 15 again or lower. I expect the rate at which snapshots sell under 20 to be a trickle in comparison to the dump of snaps under 20 dollars during the chat room closures.

People are now asking themselves “Well, hmm, I mean do I HAVE to sell my currently listed snapshot for 30 dollars and relist for $18?” The next few weeks will get the last of the holdouts who want to put their money elsewhere and depending on the investment they want to get into it might be well worth it since HK NFTs need at least another 12 to 18 months for floors to really take off imo. The key for me, and I sometimes violate this rule but I am getting better at being patient over the years, is to not chase price. Every snapshot I recently bought was bought because they met set parameters I set before I started buying. I specifically avoided most premium HK snapshots above 20 but bought anything under 20. Because I know the supply of premiums is of course far larger then my wallet I have to make sure I am picky as to what I buy and what conditions must be met for me to spend my money otherwise I will give the market the impression I’m willing to overspend and people will list their snapshots where I shouldn’t be buying. Since I’m a buyer and this is a buyers market it is important that sellers know that I want their good stuff at a good price. Their overpriced junk, relative to the market, won’t get any attention unless they wholesale price back to initial minting price or below. Stubborn sellers won’t budge and thats great because it props up the market longer. Sellers who are more flexible or realistic will slowly lower their prices until someone bites. However for those that want to sell quick and fast those are my bread and butter and those you just have to out wait them.

Take a look above at prices. We see 22 then 23 then 24 then a big gap at 29. The gap between 24 and 29 is 4 and yesterday it was 5. I was taught by a very good teacher of the markets long ago that markets love to fill gaps. It doesn’t matter if its mangos or WTI crude oil. There is this pressure or compression of prices above the gaps that pushes on the gap until its filled if my analogy makes sense. You have an enormous quantity of snapshots above the gap that are all seeking buyers and this creates pressure to adjust prices to where buyers are enticed to buy. Gaps are these huge voids that attract price and even if filled it doesn’t mean that buyers will swoop in. It just means that price action is pressured to fill in gaps and or go lower.

A very orderly market where there is little volatility is one where I see consecutive price ranges of no more then 1 dollar. So for example previously we saw 22, 23, 24. This means that sellers are trying to outdo each other but not so much that they’re willing to undercut each other by too much. They just want to shine to buyers but without looking desperate or selling too low. If someone comes in and lists something for 20 dollars today then we have 2 dollar price gap waiting to be filled. We will have 20, 22, 23,24. These are great to see because sellers will now have to decide “Should I fill the gap and list at 21 and 22 or should I undercut the person at list at 19 where I know I am likely to sell my snapshot more quickly since thats where the buyers have been the last few days?” Some are more logical then others. Others have their pride and ego and they don’t want people to think they sold too cheaply. In the end though what they don’t want is the market to continue lower later and they had a chance to have sold sooner had they just lowered their price a bit more for a quick sale.

The next few weeks will be very interesting to see price action wise. I expect most gaps to be filled from pages 1 to 3 in the month of July. Meaning that I would expect to see price gaps of no more then 2 dollars on the first 3 pages by the end of July. This indicates to me prices settling down, volatility slowing down and sellers being comfortable with their listing prices and willing to wait for price to come up to them to fill them on their sell order. I do expect maybe at most another 20 to 24 snaps to sell at or under 20 dollars over the course of July. I think these are the last hold outs and they are trying to get rid of their mostly generic stock and shore up capital for other things.

I do expect Berlin and Barcelona Premium snapshots to be prime candidates for under 20 dollar pricing and some of those snapshots have incredible attributes listed cheaply simply because they are of Berlin or Barcelona origin. So I expect 1 page or 2 of snapshots to be sold in the next couple weeks. A page is equal to 12 snapshots. Recur lists the snaps as sets of 12 per webpage. So page 1 has 12 snaps then page 2 has 12 snaps etc. Before the dump there were about 67 pages of snaps listed for sale. We’re now at 57 pages. Thats an incredible 10 page or 120 snapshot reduction from the selling supply. Most of it sold, some of it was repriced higher or taken off the market. Those that were repriced higher are effectively invisible in the current market as no one will really spend 200 dollars on a snapshot now even if it is an incredible deal. BUT once the wrapping begins that sentiment will change and holdouts will be richly rewarded.

My current buying plan is to now just be patient, let the remaining eager buyers come to me and into my buy zone and then buy very patiently and slowly. The more I wait the lower prices in the current market. I have more snaps then I had ever hoped to acquire and so now I just have to coast. I set myself a goal that I will buy one snap under 20 dollars every week until there are no more snaps under 20 dollars. If I did this for a year I would collect more then 24 snaps or more then 2 pages!

As price action compresses and fills in gaps and sellers lower their prices I expect other buyers to swoop in and snap up some great deals on rares and ultra rares as well. I still fully expect at least 1 page of snapshots to be sold on a monthly basis and that is a conservative estimate. Right now the average, excluding my own purchases, is about 1 snap every day when averaged over 30 days. If we are talking about total number of sales including main PFPS, Snaps, Stamps and sealed suitcases then easily 2 items on average sold per day imo. But right now Im only counting snapshots as I believe it is the most relevant item to keep an eye on due to the wrapping event.

Could prices dump back to 15 and masses of snaps flood the market again? Sure Recur could close down tomorrow or the crypto market crashes and everyone panics but that doesn’t matter. The NFT supply is so tiny compared to the future demand for it that I don’t mind. The only thing we can control is our money and if we choose to spend it then we choose to accept whatever happens to it once we give it away in exchange for anything we buy. That’s the name of the game folks.

Its end of June 2023 and July is around the corner. July is the first month where I expect the possibility of a major announcement by Recur on HK. July, August and September are going to be key months. If nothing is announced by September then nothing will be announced for 2023 and 2024 will be the year to look for progress. I know I know it sucks but I have explained already the market is just stagnant now but believe me companies are still building and building furiously. However I am optimistic that the next 90 days are going to manifest the next stage in the HK collection.

Be patient because HK NFTs are going to be a very big thing in the future. It will be the “it” lifestyle NFT to hold as part of a broader collection of NFTs in the nostalgia category of collections. Summer 2024 will be vastly different then 2023 and you don’t want to be the gal that tells herself “Man, I wish I had bought when prices were so cheap”